Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles
نویسنده
چکیده
A previous version of the paper has been published as Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 27-2012. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Finland. The recent increase in Chinese house prices has led to concerns that China is vulnerable to asset price shocks. In this paper, we apply recently developed recursive unit root tests to spot the beginning and the end of potential speculative bubbles in Chinese house price cycles. Overall, we find that except for 2009–10 actual house prices are not significantly disconnected from fundamentals. Thus, the evidence for speculative house price bubbles in China is in general weak.
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